Why Does the Census Matter?

As India prepares for its long-awaited census, the upcoming 2026-27 count is more than just a statistical operation. This upcoming census is significant because the delimitation of parliamentary constituencies (which was frozen based on the 1971 census) will happen after the release of the population figures from the first census after 2026.

In this Weekly, we will understand the importance of the next census, the concept of delimitation and how it will impact the 2029 elections.

What is a Census?

A census, in simple terms, is a nationwide headcount that happens regularly.
It’s an official process where the government tries to count every single person living in the country (or a specific area) at a particular time. They also ask questions to find out things like:

How old people are
Where they live
Their gender
What do they do for a living
Their education
Their religion and language

Think of it as taking a giant snapshot of the entire population to see who we are, where we live, and how we’re changing. This information then helps the government plan for things like schools, hospitals, roads, and other services for everyone.

Historical Background of the Census

In India, the first attempt at a non-synchronous census (conducted at different times in different regions) was carried out between 1865 and 1872 during the reign of Viceroy Lord Mayo. This effort, which finished in 1872, is referred to as the first population census of India.
However, the first synchronous census (conducted simultaneously across a large part of the country) was carried out in 1881. Since then, the government conducts the census every 10 years without interruption, even after Independence. The first census of Independent India was conducted in 1951.
The 2021 census, however, is an exception. It was delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic and other administrative reasons. It is now expected to be conducted in 2026-2027 and will be India’s first, fully digital census. This exercise will also include the listing of castes for the first time since 1931.

Law Governing Census

The primary law governing the census in India is the Census Act, 1948.

It gives the Central Government the power to conduct a census.
The Act empowers the Central Government to declare its intention of taking a census in the whole or any part of India. While the census is typically conducted every ten years (decennially), the Act in its current form does not explicitly mandate a fixed timing or frequency. However, historically, it has been conducted every ten years.
The Act requires the Central Government to appoint a Census Commissioner to supervise the entire census operation. It also allows for the appointment of Directors of Census Operations for individual states and other census officers at various levels.
Though the Act provides the legal framework, the population census itself is a Union subject under Article 246 of the Indian Constitution, specifically listed at serial number 69 of the Seventh Schedule (Union List). This means that only the Central Government has the authority to conduct a full-scale census.
A crucial aspect of the Act is the confidentiality of information. The personal information collected during the census is considered highly confidential and is not even accessible to courts of law. This confidentiality is guaranteed by the Act itself.

What is the Delimitation of Constituency?

“Delimitation” literally means the act of fixing limits or boundaries. In the Indian electoral context, it refers to the process of:

Readjusting the total number of Lok Sabha seats allocated to each state based on population changes.
Redrawing the boundaries of the parliamentary constituencies within each state, so that each constituency has a roughly equal population.
Identifying and reserving seats for Scheduled Castes (SCs) and Scheduled Tribes (STs) in constituencies where their population proportion warrants it.

Objective:

One person, one vote, one value: As far as practicable, every citizen’s vote should carry approximately the same weight, regardless of which part of the country they reside in. If constituency populations become wildly unequal, this principle is violated.
Fair Representation: As populations grow and shift (due to birth rates, death rates, migration, urbanisation), the existing constituency boundaries can become outdated. This can lead to some areas being over-represented and others under-represented. Delimitation corrects this imbalance.
Geographical Cohesion: While population is the primary factor, geographical features, administrative boundaries, and communication facilities are also considered to ensure that constituencies are compact and manageable.
Representation for SC/ST: It ensures that seats are reserved for Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes in proportion to their population in a state, as mandated by the Constitution.

How are delimitation and census connected?

Articles 82 and 170 of the Indian Constitution mandate that the allocation of seats in the Lok Sabha to the states and the division of each state into territorial constituencies must be readjusted after every Census.
This ideal was modified through the 42nd Constitutional Amendment Act of 1976 and further extended by the 84th Constitutional Amendment Act of 2001. The number of Lok Sabha seats allocated to each state was frozen, based on the 1971 Census figures. This freeze is set to continue until the first census conducted after the year 2026.
The freeze was meant to encourage population control measures. States that were successful in controlling population growth feared that a fresh delimitation based on later census data would reduce their parliamentary representation. They expected that states with higher population growth would gain seats. This was seen as “penalising” states for their family planning efforts and potentially disrupting the federal balance.

How the 2026-27 Census Will Shape 2029 Elections?

The 2026-27 census will significantly impact the 2029 Indian general elections, mainly due to its direct link with the upcoming delimitation exercise.

Its implication will include:

Lifting of the Delimitation Freeze:

- The constitutional provision that the freeze on the total number of Lok Sabha seats allocated to states (based on the 1971 Census) will be lifted after the first census conducted after 2026. The 2026-27 census is exactly that census, with its reference date being March 1, 2027.
- Once the population figures from the 2026-27 census are finalised and released, a new Delimitation Commission will be constituted. This commission will then:

- - Reallocate Lok Sabha seats among states: This is the biggest change. States that have seen higher population growth since 1971 (predominantly in North and Central India, like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan) are expected to gain a significant number of seats. Conversely, states that have successfully implemented population control measures (primarily southern states like Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka) might see their share of seats decrease, or at least not increase proportionally.
  - Redraw constituency boundaries within states: Even within states, the boundaries of existing constituencies will be redrawn to ensure that each constituency has a roughly equal population based on the latest census figures.

Direct Impact on the 2029 Elections:

- Changed Electoral Map: The 2029 general elections will likely be contested on a completely new electoral map. This means:

- - More MPs: The total number of Lok Sabha seats (currently 543) is highly likely to increase, possibly significantly. This is done to accommodate the overall population growth since 1971 and to maintain a reasonable representative-to-voter ratio.
  - Shift in Political Power: The balance of power in the Lok Sabha will fundamentally shift. States with larger populations will have a greater numerical strength in Parliament, which could influence national policy-making, resource allocation, and government formation.
  - New Constituency Dynamics: Political parties will have to adjust their strategies to new constituency boundaries. Campaigning, candidate selection, and vote-bank calculations will need to be re-evaluated for these new geographical and demographic realities.
  - Increased Number of Reserved Seats: The number and location of seats reserved for Scheduled Castes (SCs) and Scheduled Tribes (STs) will also be readjusted, based on their population distribution in the new census data, potentially altering political dynamics in those regions.

The 2026-27 census is not just an administrative formality for the 2029 elections; it’s a catalyst for a major structural overhaul of India’s electoral democracy. It will redefine political power equations, reshape constituency battlegrounds, and likely mark the beginning of a new era of parliamentary representation.